Published 9 August 2023
Several factors affect flight prices, including fuel costs, demand, and personnel. Currently, the airline industry is facing a significant shortage of approximately 30,000 commercial pilots, mechanics, and air traffic controllers. This shortage is leading to increased airline delays and elevated flight costs.
Although the pilot shortage has persisted for several years, it was worsened by the drastic decline in travel during the pandemic. To manage the lower demand, airlines pushed for early retirements among pilots. However, travel has surged this summer, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Consequently, many U.S. airlines are grappling with inadequate personnel, resulting in numerous canceled and delayed flights.
As of 2023, there are 1,200 fewer fully certified air traffic controllers compared to a decade ago, according to the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. Furthermore, North America is projected to be short nearly 30,000 pilots by 2032, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman. This pilot shortage disproportionately affects regional airlines, particularly those that operate smaller 50-seat aircraft and are not associated with major carriers.
The Future of Airline Employment
Due to these ongoing challenges, airlines are revising flight schedules while actively recruiting to fill staffing gaps. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is forecasted to grow by 6 percent from 2021 to 2031. On average, about 18,100 openings for airline and commercial pilots are anticipated each year over the next decade. Many of these openings will arise from the need to replace workers who transition to different occupations or retire.
The personnel shortages within the aviation industry are empowering pilots and their unions to negotiate more favorable contracts, resulting in increased costs for airlines. Recently, United Airlines signed an agreement with its pilots that could boost pay by up to 40% over four years, with the contract valued at an impressive $10 billion. Moreover, pilots at American Airlines have reached a similar agreement to align their pay rates with those at United and Delta. Such significant pay increases, scheduled to commence on January 1, will likely compel airlines to elevate flight prices in order to manage these additional costs.
