Understanding How Airlines Select New Flight Routes

We asked the experts what airlines consider before launching a new route — or deciding to retire one.

When you go to plan a flight, there are some nonstop routes you expect to find every time. New York to Los Angeles, for example, or perhaps Chicago to Miami. However, when considering both smaller domestic airports as well as major and minor international ones, your travel plans from A to B might include a layover or two. So, what goes into airlines’ route planning?

Perhaps unsurprisingly, a lot. Route offerings are not static, and they often change throughout the year — many airlines operate seasonal routes to accommodate travel trends. In the summer, for instance, many airlines amp up European route offerings, whether adding new cities or additional flights on established routes. Consequently, it all comes down to a team crunching various numbers to figure out which routes are not only in demand but also profitable.

A Delta spokesperson tells iBestTravel that five main factors go into the selection process for new routes: demand, competitive positioning, operational feasibility, strategic value, and financial performance. Moreover, they are all very much interconnected, with the thresholds for each varying per route.

This Is Exactly How Airlines Choose New Routes

Demand: This factor is straightforward — how many people want or need to fly this route? It’s unlikely that you’ll see nonstop flights between Lehigh Valley International Airport in Pennsylvania and Roswell Air Center in New Mexico, since there are not many people looking to fly that route regularly (or so we suspect). If you do need to fly between those destinations, airlines can accommodate you, but you’ll probably need to take a layover.

Most U.S. airlines operate via the hub-and-spoke model, where you fly from a regional airport down a “spoke” to a hub airport, then from that hub airport down a different “spoke” to another regional airport. (Yes, picture a wagon wheel.) Smaller airlines might operate a point-to-point model that connects smaller airports directly, yet those flights are still subject to demand. Often, you’ll find them flying from regional airports to popular vacation destinations like Florida.

Competitive positioning: This refers to an airline’s standing among its competitors on specific routes. If one airline flies a certain route regularly, will another airline be able to tap into that market? In some cases, there are plenty of passengers to go around, such as those flying from London to New York. However, it’s up to an airline’s route-planning team to determine if they can compete successfully.

Operational feasibility: This factor considers the logistics of operating a route, such as the availability of aircraft and crew. Some particularly congested airports face capacity restrictions, too; these have a slot system that permits airlines a certain number of takeoffs and landings per day. However, operational feasibility also involves other governmental regulations, particularly for international destinations. “International routes planning, especially for a new destination, can be more complicated as we need to factor in the foreign point-of-sale demand trajectory and all the regulatory constraints for that country,” a Delta spokesperson says.

Strategic value: This refers to a route’s role in an airline’s overall network, both in the short and long term. Even if demand for a certain route might be somewhat weak, an airline may opt to fly that route with the expectation that it will become more in demand over time. Moreover, specific destinations can play a role here — some local governments may advocate for specific routes to boost tourism, offering incentives like a big marketing push to increase ticket sales.

Finally, financial performance: This aspect is largely self-explanatory. Analysts must ascertain whether or not a route will yield a healthy profit, considering factors like ticket prices, load capacity, and operational costs.

Sound like a lot of work? It certainly is! Route planning is a dynamic process with airlines. Between 2015 and 2019, Delta averaged about 50 new routes per year, while suspending about 38 annually. “Delta is always planning one to five years out by networking and monitoring the market dynamics closely,” the spokesperson explains. “However, we are also nimble in our network planning to best meet customers’ needs.”

Therefore, the next time you search for flights, consider all the efforts that went into planning the specific route you are considering.