Understanding Airfares
When it comes to super useful travel knowledge, nothing tops knowing when to book your flights.
The booking site CheapAir.com recently analyzed nearly three million trips in more than 8,000 markets for fares booked between one and 335 days in advance. After evaluating 1.3 billion airfares, the CheapAir team found that the best fares were secured, on average, 54 days in advance for domestic flights.
Airfares operate under a surge pricing model, meaning they are influenced by supply and demand, leading to significant fluctuations from week to week. Initially, when a flight opens for sale roughly 11 months out, fares typically start off high, gradually decrease, and then surge again a few weeks before departure—especially within the last 14 days.
Booking Zones
To clarify this process, CheapAir categorizes the typical booking window of a flight into five distinct booking “zones”, which include:
- First Dibs Zone
197-335 days out
Most airlines begin selling seats for flights up to 335 days in advance. At this stage, fares tend to be high but may decrease in the future. The primary advantage of booking early is the wider selection of flight options and better seat choices, although the lowest fares during this zone average about $50 higher than during the “Prime Booking Window.” - Peace of Mind Zone
113-196 days out
For those who prefer to solidify their travel plans well in advance, this zone offers a modest premium of around $20 more than the prices in the “Prime Booking Window.” Here, travelers still enjoy numerous options and favorable seat selection. - Prime Booking Window
21-112 days out
This is often considered the sweet spot for booking flights, occurring roughly three weeks to 3.5 months in advance. It is advisable to closely monitor fares within this period, as they tend to fluctuate significantly. - Push Your Luck Zone
14-20 days out
Booking during this time involves risk. Especially popular destinations may have limited availability, and prices are typically high during peak travel periods. - Hail Mary Zone
0-13 days out
Last-minute fare searches often result in frustration. Booking flights within 7 days of departure typically incurs an average surcharge of nearly $200 compared to the “Prime Booking Window.” Even booking between 7 and 13 days out usually results in at least a $75 additional cost.
Key Takeaways From the Study
- Booking very far ahead—almost a year out—will not yield the best price.
- The “prime booking window” is three weeks to 3.5 months in advance. On average, the optimal booking day is around 54 days out.
- Procrastination can be costly; airfares usually skyrocket two weeks prior to domestic trips.
- CheapAir.com’s study revealed that the average price difference between booking on the “best” day and the “worst” day was $212 per ticket—almost $850 for a family of four.
International Flights
For international flights, the optimal booking window is considerably earlier. According to a CheapAir.com study conducted in 2014, the ideal time to purchase tickets to Latin America is approximately 96 days in advance. For the Caribbean, this increases to about 144 days (nearly five months), and for flights to Europe about 276 days (approximately nine months) in advance. Similarly, flights to Asia should ideally be booked 318 days, or roughly ten months ahead of time.
