When Will Travel Resume After COVID-19 Vaccination?

With the announcement of an effective COVID-19 vaccine, aviation journalist John Walton looks into when travellers should expect to be able to get back on the road.

If you weren’t already popping the corks at the news over the last week, the announcement from Pfizer and BioNTech that their first candidate COVID-19 vaccine is 90% effective is reason to celebrate for all of us — and particularly for those of us who are waiting to travel to visit our friends and family, rest and recharge, and explore our shared world.

There’s finally some light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel, although there’s still a significant pathway ahead before we can return to responsible travel. After our first celebratory toast, it’s crucial to consider what this means for those of us who have been longing to travel throughout the year.

Effectiveness: A Question of Numbers

The effectiveness of a vaccination campaign is based on simple mathematics: it’s the number of people vaccinated multiplied by the percentage of people the vaccine stops from contracting the disease (its efficacy). Pfizer’s study involving nearly 44,000 participants indicates that its vaccine candidate has an efficacy rate of 90%. For context, a good year for the flu vaccine is around 50%, making this excellent news — and potentially more good news may come from other vaccine candidates currently in late-stage trials.

However, it’s important to remember that if the vaccine is 90% effective at preventing infection, this still leaves one in ten individuals who may still fall ill. You’re unlikely to know which group you belong to, but if you are among the fortunate 90%, you will benefit from a reduction in the virus circulating among your peers. This advantage, however, only materializes once a sufficient number of individuals have been vaccinated to allow the disease to die out.

Moreover, some countries may not aim to vaccinate their entire populations. The UK, for instance, has not yet decided on vaccinating anyone under 50.

Implications of the Vaccine on Travel in 2021

Let’s consider the timing: unless you belong to a high-risk group or are a healthcare worker on the front lines combatting COVID-19, you should expect to receive a vaccination during the early or middle end of 2021. The process of producing and distributing this vaccine globally is a massive undertaking, not least because two injections spaced 21 days apart are required, meaning that the completion of the vaccination process for each individual will take almost a month.

Furthermore, the vaccine must be transported and stored at -80°C (-112°F), which introduces significant complexities regarding distribution and administration. Several later candidate vaccines appear to be more tolerant of higher temperatures, but their efficacy is still under study. Consequently, we may find that high-risk individuals receive the earliest candidate vaccine first, while others wait for subsequent options.

Additionally, COVID-19 has a two-week incubation period; thus, as evidenced by current lockdowns and restrictions in Europe, results from decisions made today will only begin to show effects after that latency period.

We will further need time for medical systems to recover from their current emergency state. Simultaneously, they must implement the most comprehensive urgent vaccination program ever seen globally, which is likely to take several months, even if everything proceeds without complications.

Travel Possibilities Post-Vaccination

This leads us to the crucial question: Will we be able to travel as soon as we’re vaccinated? It seems almost obvious that individuals who have received their vaccinations and had adequate time to build immunity should be allowed to travel, especially if the 90% efficacy rate holds true. This is even more relevant if effective hygiene measures, like mask-wearing and social distancing, remain in place until the vaccination campaign is complete.

That said, it seems likely that different governments will adopt varying approaches regarding vaccination principles and specifics, such as how proof of vaccination will be established. Therefore, your travel experience will likely differ depending on your destination.

From observations this year, it appears that countries heavily reliant on tourism will be most eager to welcome visitors back. However, this may not be universal: nations like New Zealand and Australia, which have experienced significant success in controlling COVID-19, may impose some of the strictest travel restrictions.

It’s possible that much of the responsibility for administering vaccination proof will fall on airlines, similar to how they currently verify visa eligibility. Thus, when you receive your vaccinations, it is advisable to ensure you retain signed and dated documentation detailing the vaccines you have received.

The timeline for when travel can resume will depend on numerous factors: the success rates of vaccines, their efficacy, how swiftly your country implements its vaccination efforts, the caution of your intended destination regarding the virus, and the knowledge we gain about virus transmission in the coming months. However, if all proceeds as hoped, the prospect of responsible travel might materialize between early and mid-2021. In the meantime, prioritize safety, maintain health protocols, and look after yourself and one another.