The trend line toward automotive electrification is pointing up and to the right, even if its slope isn’t constant. Therefore, electrical and chemical engineers are diligently working to make electric mobility as safe, convenient, and carefree as combustion driving is today. Here’s a look at the tech we expect to emerge in the months, years, and decades ahead.
Today
Lithium-iron-phosphate will continue its meteoric rise in global market share, from 6 percent in 2020 to 30 percent in 2022. Energy density runs about 30 to 60 percent less than prevalent nickel-manganese-cobalt chemistries, but it’s safer, and abundantly available materials improve both cost and sustainability.
A promising best-of-both-worlds approach is the Our Next Energy Gemini battery, featuring novel nickel-manganese cells with great energy density but reduced cycle life, working alongside LFP cells that will happily charge to 100 percent daily. The LFP cells would be used for daily driving, while the others would pitch in during occasional long trips. Financial woes delayed production, but a strategic partnership with Foxconn may help it get back on track.
A switch away from packaging cells in modules (and then packaging those modules into another case) and toward cell-to-pack assembly promises improved energy density—especially when using more space-efficient cylindrical or pouch-style batteries.
Solid-state batteries have been “coming soon” for a long time, but progress is being made as China’s IM Motors L6 sedan is poised to become the first production vehicle to employ a solid-state setup, with a 130-kWh pack good for 622 miles on China’s cycle (possibly 400-plus by EPA standards). IM Motors claims it uses a patented “nano-scale electrolyte” with “high ionic conductivity and high-temperature resistance.” It also says the battery’s cathode is coated with nickel, while the anode is made from a “high-specific-energy composite silicon carbon material.” Furthermore, it supports 400-kW charging that can reportedly add as much as 249 miles of range in just 12 minutes.
Companies like QuantumScape, Solid Power, and Toyota are preparing for solid-state battery production in the near term, as well. We’re also monitoring the ongoing development of copper cellulose as a highly sustainable solid-state electrode material.
Tomorrow
Battery innovations require years of development. Here are some that may complete this process within the next decade, starting with novel chemistries.
Lyten is making strides in bringing lithium-sulfur to market. One sulfur atom can host two lithium ions, while it takes more than one NMC molecule to grab one lithium ion. This significantly improves energy density. Moreover, Lyten’s innovative graphene cathode may have solved a sulfur-depletion problem that initially hampered cycle life. It has been shipping pilot-line production samples to automakers.
Sodium ion batteries are even cheaper than LFP, but with 80 percent of LFP’s already lower energy density, they are expected to see automotive use primarily in lighter, cheaper applications and possibly in automotive 12-volt systems.
Novel electrode materials are also on the horizon. Today’s batteries typically use a metal oxide cathode active material (CAM) like lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide or lithium-iron-phosphate. The anode active materials that collect these ions during charging are often carbon-based graphite. Silicon attracts more lithium ions but physically expands in the process, potentially damaging the cell.
Silicon nanowire anodes promise higher energy storage while swelling less, but the cost is still excessive. Additionally, lithium metal anodes participate in the chemical process, improving energy density, yet further development is required to prevent the formation of metal “whiskers” that can short-circuit the cell.
Bipolar batteries promise improved energy density by stacking cells and directly connecting one anode to the next cathode—similar to stacking batteries in a flashlight—rather than each getting its own casing and external connection. Toyota has produced bipolar NiMH batteries and claims a forthcoming bipolar LFP battery will boost range by 20 percent while reducing costs by 40 percent compared to the battery currently powering its bZ4X EV.
In a new dual-ion battery (DIB), both positive cations and negative anions participate in the process. This method significantly enhances charging efficiency and energy density, with cycle life presenting the most significant remaining challenge.
The Far Future
All the aforementioned advancements are expected to improve energy density, charging times, costs, and safety. Therefore, with a maturing infrastructure, commuting and road-tripping in electric vehicles will become as routine as in today’s gasoline-based cars. Moreover, we are optimistic about the scientists working to make commercial nuclear fusion a reality, potentially resolving our sustainable energy challenges once and for all.
