To help you understand what is going on with interest rates, inflation, and job growth, and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced team at iBestTravel will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts. You’ll get all the latest news first, and we will publish many forecasts online shortly thereafter. Here’s the latest…
The August jobs report looked not too hot, not too cold for the Federal Reserve. Job growth is slowing enough to stay the Fed’s hand at its September meeting when it will decide whether to raise interest rates again. We think it’ll stand pat because it appears the economy is slowing sufficiently to keep inflation trending down.
However, the labor market remains healthy enough to keep recession odds low. Employers added a solid but not spectacular 187,000 jobs. Gains for June and July were revised down, but still look decent. Pay increases are slowing yet remain high. This is what the Fed wants to see: slower growth without a downturn.
If that pans out, look for interest rates to hold around their current levels. Even if it thinks no more hikes are needed, the Fed will be in no rush to make cuts. Consequently, Wall Street will be relieved to dodge a recession but isn’t keen on rates staying high.
Moreover, regarding inflation, watch for an unsettling upturn later this year. The main reason will be the result of comparing prices in November and December of this year to those same months in 2022 when inflation softened somewhat. This will exacerbate the year-over-year comparison.
What’s more, the government is changing how it calculates healthcare price increases, which will likely add 0.1% to the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure from October through March 2024. The Fed is unlikely to be overly concerned regarding this anticipated increase stemming from these statistical changes.
This forecast first appeared in iBestTravel, which has been providing concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends since 1923, aimed at helping you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and finances.
